A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
